The Most Import Derby in Years

It appears, if you listen to anybody describing this weekend's fixture of 1^st vs 3^rd, that it is the most important clash between the two clubs since, well, the last one.

As the gap between red and blue begins to diminish it appears that every derby since 2008 has become more important than the last. This obviously isn't the case, last years Carling Cup Semi-Final clashes were probably the most important derby in 3 decades as the winner had a real shot at bringing home the cup from Wembley (Which United subsequently did). What people mean to say isn't the derby is more important, it's simply more equal.

Regardless of the result on Saturday, it will not determine anything. A home win might take the team that shall not be named a step closer to another domestic league title whilst an away win will put City back in the hunt for a first Premiership league title. It only does that for another week, come the results of the following fixtures and the results after that, and after that, Saturday's result becomes meaningless, especially so if neither team takes advantage of a positive result in the weeks to come.

Make the Most of It

Given our resurgence, the Manchester Derby has now become one of the premium fixtures in the Premiership's calendar, however this isn't something that's going to last forever. The wider Greater Manchester area isn't an especially large metropolitan area in either population or area ranking 3^rd and 39^th in the UK respectively. Despite this the area supports 4 Premiership teams and almost a further 3 dozen teams in the English football league pyramid. The football club per capita of population is immense, greater even than many footballing hot beds in South America and is something certainly unique in Europe.

No other area, especially one with a population of just over two and a half million inhabitants and so many teams can boast a club to population ratio of around 1:75,000. That in itself, is where the clubs are hamstringing themselves. The area has done well to support one of Europe's top dogs for so well, but is it big enough to manage two?

In my opinion it isn't sustainable. I think aggregate attendances for both Manchester clubs has a high point of around 130,000 (based on the most recent population figures) – a figure we're very close to hitting at the moment. As one team becomes more successful than the other then we'll notice support ebb from one team to another. This will obviously be a gradual process that will happen over decades and generations rather than months and years.

The coming years are showing the promise to be neck and neck, the golden years of Manchester's rivalry. We're lucky to witness the years where the disparity between the two clubs could arguably be at it's lowest. We must not take it for granted and as supporters, we must make the most of it.

The Friendly Derby

Supporters of both sets of teams, pundits, experts and journalists always like to talk about the intensity of this fixture. The truth is the rivalry is there, but there's no real intensity. The support of either club isn't based on religion, social status or political viewpoint. Sure each borough of Manchester can claim to be either red or blue, but there's little in it.

What does draw the two clubs together so well is the unspoken mutual respect people show towards each other in times of tragedy and marking respect. This was first evident in the late 19^th century when both clubs came together to play a charity match for 23 local miners who perished in an accident and the 50^th anniversary of the Munich disaster that was impeccably observed.

City have also famously allowed United to play at Maine Road for two separate periods. Firstly, when, if t-shirts are to believed, Uwe's granddad's Heinkel's payload directly hit Old Trafford during the war years and secondly whilst the reconstruction and refurbishment work took place on Old Trafford in the immediate aftermath of the war.

That's not to say the Manchester Derby is especially friendly, just friendlier than some. It certainly has it's unsavoury moments (as does every derby). Opposing fans throwing horse manure at each other outside Dry Bar is a particular low.

£, $, €

The Manchester Derby is huge in terms of the revenue of the two clubs. The combined turnover of both clubs equates to almost a quarter of that for the Premiership combined and makes it one of the top 3 footballing cities by revenue by my count, just behind London and Madrid. This is further emphasised by the TV viewing figures of last year's Carling Cup semi-final games. With an aggregate of almost 125,000 watching the tie at the grounds and an estimated audience of almost 15,000,000 watched the games on television in the UK alone.

The reason for this is simple, it's not just Mancunians that care abut the result of this derby, but arguably, due to each team's following abroad, so does a sizeable percentage of the rest of the world.

Indeed, figures released only yesterday show that this isn't just a battle between 1^st and 3^rd in the league, but it's also a contest between 3^rd and 11^th in the revenue stakes. Given City's metaphorical rise in world football's revenue table it's fair to assume that given that these figures are a throwback to last May's annual report, City may in fact already be significantly higher.

The Law of Tort

Interestingly 'The Sun' decided to run with the headline 'Untied Still Richer than Rivals City' on the 10^th of February. Unfortunately I wasn't quick enough to grab a screenshot of the typing error before Untied became United but a typing error of that magnitude says everything about the article. I find it hard to believe that a daily publication of this size employ people who do not understand the differences between revenue and wealth, however given their choice of regurgitated Tevez stories this week it's obvious they have either a very pro-United or anti-City agenda.

It doesn't particularly rile me that they have printed accusations and stories that are far over the line of libel. Anybody with any academic experience of English Tort should be able to see that 'The Sun' are being setup for an almighty fall. Libel is surprisingly difficult to prove, normally to obtain a successful conviction you must prove i) the writer/publisher published said item without adequate research; ii) the writer/publisher published said item did so knowing it was false; and lastly iii) the writer/publisher published said item to cause harm. This is difficult to prove on its own merits, but against a Newspaper things become even more complicated as the media feel they have a 'duty to report.'

Due to the nature of these articles I believe City have adopted the following strategy: (since at least the middle of last year that the majority of the rest of the industry have cottoned onto and subsequently been more impartial in their reports) – rather issuing warning, counter-warning and subsequently taking these issues to the Civil Courts where a conviction would hang in the balance they have simply stopped responding. This in itself has probably scared law departments around the country, the more astute of them have probably realised that a storm is brewing and it's only a matter of time before a publisher is taken to the civil courts with a list of offenses going back months if not years. In this case something is fundamentally clear to everybody besides 'The Sun'. The unspoken warning is something that should be headed.

'In The Sun last month, we ran a picture which showed Kolo Toure on the ground and a smiling Nigel de Jong dragging him up as a Manchester City coach raises his right arm at him following a training-ground tackle.

'We suggested De Jong was re-enacting and mocking the tackle which left Newcastle's Hatem Ben Arfa with a broken leg in a Premier League game.

'We now accept De Jong was not doing this and are happy to set the record straight.'
 

Territory

As mentioned earlier in this article neither of the clubs can claim to have a particular hot bed in the City as is usual in other footballing derbies. The reason of this is two-fold; firstly the split between teams isn't based on class (such as say Boca vs River), ideology (CSKA vs Spartak) religion (Rangers vs Celtic) or even continental (Fenerbache vs Galatasary) and secondly because neither club has remained in a particular area of the city since it's inception with both clubs now having relocated 3 times to new stadia. City have moved from East to South to North-East and United have gone from North-East to North to now just West of the city's boundaries.

There are undoubtedly areas of the city where either club has a sizeable majority but unlike other derby's there isn't a split. This is something quite unique in footballing derbies (especially among clubs of this size), however as the screw begins to turn further on United's finances and the subsequent effect this may have on their on field success it's something both clubs are fully mindful of.

I'm mildly surprised that neither club have offered some kind of postcode based discount for season ticket prices, especially for those under 12 years old. Either club could significantly reduce the presence of the other across the region within a generation or two with the right pricing strategy to entice the region's youth.

History

I can't pass comment on derby matches prior to the 1990's, simply because I'm not old enough to accurately recall anything from before this time. I wish I couldn't remember the derby games during the 90's. I hated them. We didn't take a single point at Old Trafford in the premier league years of the 90's (92-99) and only point at home, which was in '93.

It was a difficult time to support City and just so happened to coincide with my high school years. However, even though both clubs were at opposite ends of the footballing success spectrum the split between the clubs in terms of support was negligible at high school and if anything, slightly in City's favour, albeit not by a big enough margin for it to be considered a more or less even split.

That's what sets Manchester apart from the likes of London, Birmingham and other large metropolitan areas of England. Even though the success of City has been minimal and to be based so close to a club that has been the most successful in England when measured over the last 30 years, Manchester City still hold their own when it comes to their fan base, especially when looking at those from within the 'M' post-code catchment area.

Verdict

I can see the game going one of two ways. Scenario A sees City getting an early goal and we have another see-saw encounter with plenty of goal mouth action and an open game. Scenario B sees the game played with nerves and little attacking extravagance from either side. As a result the game is either won by either side by the solitary goal or remains goalless.